Conflict Update: Ukrainian Gains and Russian Claims
This week, the ongoing military conflict between Ukraine and Russia showcased stark contrasts between Ukraine’s recent successes and Russia’s confident assertions of victory. As Ukrainian forces made significant strides in reclaiming territory, Russian narratives struggled to align with the realities on the ground.
Ukrainian Advances in Kupiansk
Ukrainian forces have successfully regained control over nearly the entire northern city of Kupiansk, effectively isolating the Russian troops stationed there. This development directly contradicts Russia’s claims of holding the city firmly. Ukrainian operations in the Kharkiv region have effectively severed Russian logistical support to Kupiansk, surrounding around 200 Russian soldiers trapped within the city.
Details of the Assault
Geolocated footage revealed Ukrainian advancements, particularly on December 12, when they recaptured the southern suburb of Yuvileynyi, forcing Russian troops towards the northern and western outskirts. By Monday, the situation for Russian forces had grown perilous as Ukrainian troops thwarted attempts to send reinforcements, utilizing tactics that had previously been successful for Russia in Chasiv Yar. Supply lines for the encircled Russian troops were reduced to reliance on drones.
Conflicting Claims from Russia
Despite the developments on the battlefield, the Russian Ministry of Defence maintained its narrative, asserting that “units of the Zapad Group of Forces exercise reliable control” over Kupiansk. A Russian military correspondent on Telegram noted, “The only thing that can be said for sure is that the Russian Armed Forces are still holding part of the center and north of Kupiansk, but most of it is already either in the grey zone or under control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”
Escalation in Pokrovsk
Simultaneously, Ukraine’s military efforts in Pokrovsk demonstrated its determination to reclaim territory. Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskii informed allies that 90 percent of Pokrovsk had been returned to Ukrainian control. This statement came amidst Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov’s claims of success in Pokrovsk, which contradicts Ukrainian assertions. In a recent address, Belousov insisted Russian forces were inflicting damage on Ukrainian forces within the area, yet Ukrainian counter-offenses continued to push back.
Ongoing Military Actions
Ukrainian forces reported regaining a substantial amount of land, with about 16 square kilometers reclaimed in the northern part of Pokrovsk and an additional 56 square kilometers to the west. Despite claiming comprehensive control on December 2, Russia’s narrative has not changed, although battlefield intelligence suggests otherwise.
Technological Warfare: Underwater Drone Strike
Another contentious point this week was Ukraine’s reported utilization of an underwater unmanned vehicle (UUV) to strike a Russian Kilo-class submarine on December 15. Video evidence depicted a significant explosion at the rear of the submarine, positioned in the port of Novorossiysk. Following the attack, Ukraine’s State Security Service publicly acknowledged responsibility. However, Russia’s Defence Ministry dismissed the claim, asserting that no damages occurred within their fleet.
Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Infrastructure
Beyond naval engagements, Ukraine executed targeted strikes on several strategic locations, including oil refineries in Yaroslavl and Krasnodar Krai, as well as a power plant in Smolensk. These operations went largely unaddressed by Russian officials, indicating a significant level of disruption to Russian oil and energy supplies.
Future Outlook: Negotiations and Military Strategy
As negotiations between Ukrainian and U.S. teams occurred in Berlin, Russian officials indicated they would stay informed about these discussions. Despite professing interest in dialogue, Russia’s defence chief, Belousov, outlined plans to intensify military operations in the coming year.
Statements from Leaders
President Putin reiterated Russia’s objective to occupy “historical lands” by military force, undermining any suggestions that Moscow might seek a diplomatic resolution. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov echoed these sentiments in recent interviews, dismissing any potential compromises regarding seized territories.
Russian Recruitment and Losses
On the ground, Russia continues to face criticism regarding its manpower. Belousov reported significant volunteer numbers, boasting nearly 410,000 recruits. However, analysis from military experts suggests these numbers may not suffice to replace the staggering loss rates that Russian forces have sustained.
Impact of Casualties
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy highlighted concerns over the high loss rate of Russian soldiers, claiming approximately 30,000 fatalities per month. This outlook raises questions about the sustainability of Russia’s military operations, as casualties among Russian troops continue to mount, complicating their recruitment strategies.
Conclusion
The developments this week illustrate a significant divergence between Ukrainian military achievements and Russian government claims. As the conflict escalates, the international community watches closely, awaiting the outcome of both military maneuvers and potential negotiations.
- Ukrainian forces regain control of Kupiansk and significant parts of Pokrovsk.
- Russia continues to downplay Ukrainian successes with conflicting reports.
- Ukraine’s innovative military operations include successful drones strikes on naval and industrial targets.
- The recruitment challenge in Russia raises concerns about sustaining their military efforts amid rising casualties.