Southern Transitional Council leader’s controversial exit raises tensions in Yemen.

The situation in Yemen has taken a dramatic turn as the leader of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), Aidarous al-Zubaidi, has fled to the United Arab Emirates after bypassing planned peace negotiations in Riyadh. This unexpected move has the potential to escalate existing tensions in the region.

According to a statement from the Saudi Arabia-led coalition, al-Zubaidi “escaped in the dead of night” on Wednesday, departing from Aden, Yemen, on a boat bound for the port city of Berbera in Somaliland.

Details of the Escape

After arriving in Berbera, al-Zubaidi boarded a plane, accompanied by Emirati officers, headed for Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu. The coalition’s statement revealed that the aircraft deactivated its identification systems while navigating the Gulf of Oman, only to reactivate them ten minutes before landing at Al Reef Military Airport in Abu Dhabi.

As of now, there has been no official response from either the STC or the UAE regarding al-Zubaidi’s departure.

Implications for Yemeni Politics

This escape could significantly exacerbate the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, particularly following a recent military offensive by the Abu Dhabi-backed STC against Saudi-supported Yemeni government forces in December. Originally, the STC had aligned with Yemen’s internationally recognized government to combat Houthi rebels in the north, but it is now pursuing an independent state in southern Yemen. The STC has already taken control of provinces such as Hadramout and Mahra, areas that border Saudi Arabia, which Riyadh perceives as a serious threat to its national security.

The Saudi-led coalition retaliated with airstrikes on the Yemeni port of Mukalla on December 30, targeting what they described as a UAE-linked shipment of weapons. They have since supported calls from Yemen’s internationally recognized government for the withdrawal of Emirati forces from the region.

In response, Abu Dhabi has denied the allegations regarding weapons, reiterating its commitment to safeguarding Riyadh’s security. On the same day, the UAE declared the conclusion of its “counterterrorism mission” in Yemen.

Yemeni government forces, aided by Saudi airstrikes, subsequently regained control over Hadramout and Mahra. Moreover, the STC announced intentions to participate in upcoming peace talks hosted by Saudi Arabia.

As part of these developments, an STC delegation, excluding al-Zubaidi, reportedly left Yemen for Riyadh earlier on Wednesday.

Consequences for Al-Zubaidi

Rashad al-Alimi, head of the internationally recognized government’s Presidential Leadership Council, has declared that al-Zubaidi has been dismissed from the council due to “committing high treason.” Al-Alimi has called for an investigation into al-Zubaidi’s actions, urging the Attorney General to pursue legal measures against him.