Myanmar’s Military Gains Ground Amidst Ongoing Conflict

Myanmar’s military has been revitalizing its efforts in the ongoing struggle against various opposition factions, successfully reclaiming territory and moving forward with a controversial election set to commence this Sunday. This shift marks a significant turnaround for the military, which only recently faced doubts regarding its resilience.

Analysts attribute much of this change in momentum to China’s evolving support. Over the past five years, since the coup in 2021, the military has faced increasing resistance, but Chinese backing seems to be altering the landscape of this prolonged conflict.

The Role of China in Myanmar’s Conflict

According to Jason Tower, a senior expert focusing on Myanmar at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, China has played a crucial role in aiding the military regime. “This is really all China playing a role in tilting things in favor of the military regime,” he states. Beijing has exerted pressure on powerful ethnic armed groups in northern Myanmar, encouraging ceasefires and even the return of territory to the military, while simultaneously increasing its diplomatic support and weapon transfers to the junta.

Tower notes the introduction of advanced drone technologies linked to China, which have lessened the opposition the military faces in northern territories. Furthermore, China’s involvement in international platforms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has bolstered the military’s global standing as well.

Despite ongoing civil unrest and the military’s challenge in securing control over vast regions, support from China has facilitated some territorial gains for the junta.

While China is not particularly aligned with Myanmar’s military, it has ties with various armed groups opposing the regime. Initially, Beijing’s response to the coup was subdued, but as conflict escalated and economic instability grew, China’s discontent over the rise of pro-democracy factions intensified.

The relationship is complicated by China’s substantial investments in Myanmar, including ambitious infrastructure plans aimed at linking southwestern China to the Indian Ocean. However, these projects have faced severe disruptions due to the ongoing fighting.

China’s frustration has broadened not just due to entrenched conflict but also a surge in organized crime, partly spurred by scam operations in bordering regions. This dissatisfaction led China to tacitly endorse northern ethnic armed groups to launch offensives against the junta late in 2023, as these factions depend on the Chinese border for armament supplies.

These developments took the military by surprise, leading to significant territorial losses. Following this, China adjusted its approach, employing border closures to force ethnic groups to reconsider their stance. Morgan Michaels from the International Institute for Strategic Studies suggests that China never intended for these groups to become strong enough to dismantle the Myanmar state, noting that once that possibility arose, China intervened.

Imminent Elections and China’s Position

As the military prepares for elections, which have been widely criticized by international observers and UN experts as illegitimate, China appears to be fully supporting the junta’s election plans. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has expressed hopes for the elections to bring “domestic peace” and national reconciliation, even pledging to send election observers alongside nations like Russia and Vietnam.

Critically, there is no genuine opposition participating in these elections, as the military’s proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party, dominates the candidacy landscape. Many observers believe that junta leader Min Aung Hlaing will be reluctant to relinquish control, even as he is constitutionally obliged to assume a pivotal role in government.

The military has assured China that economic initiatives will persist and has vowed to clamp down on illicit activities, notably in notorious scam regions. Yet, the military’s ability to deliver on such promises remains uncertain.

Looking ahead, if China determines that the military is missing vital opportunities for ceasefires or if there is no progress on infrastructure within two years, the country may reconsider its alignment with the junta.

Amid rising anti-China sentiment in Myanmar, fueled by perceptions that Beijing is exacerbating conflict to strengthen its influence, some analysts, like Yun Sun from the Stimson Center, argue against this characterization, stating, “China doesn’t need a war to exert influence over any of the political players in the country.”

Sun concludes that China views the situation as a dynamic balance of power, suggesting they do not favor one side entirely but seek gradual stability among the competing factions.