Ukraine, US, and Russia: A New Era of Diplomacy in Abu Dhabi

In a pivotal shift in international relations, negotiators from Ukraine, Russia, and the United States are set to convene in Abu Dhabi for their first trilateral discussions since Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While the meeting represents a significant step, the core disagreements linger, and expectations for breakthrough solutions are modest.

The Stakes at Abu Dhabi Talks

With high stakes on the table, Donald Trump is advocating for a peace deal in Ukraine, a promise that remains unfulfilled. He recently suggested that both parties would be “stupid” if they couldn’t reach an agreement. Despite his administration’s active involvement, critical issues remain unresolved, highlighting the complexity of the diplomatic landscape.

Ukraine’s Motivations for Engagement

Ukraine is actively participating in these discussions, driven by a strong desire for peace and a need to maintain a solid relationship with the United States. The lessons learned from past events, particularly when military aid and intelligence sharing were briefly halted under Trump’s administration, weigh heavily on their approach.

President Volodymyr Zelensky shared positive sentiments following a recent conversation with Trump at Davos, expressing hope for increased air defense assistance against Russia’s ongoing assaults. This time, however, Zelensky appeared more optimistic than usual, although he remains cautious about the potential outcomes of the upcoming talks in the United Arab Emirates.

Steps Toward Potential Resolution

Zelensky has indicated that they are nearing a framework deal for peace, estimating they are “90% of the way there,” but acknowledges that the final hurdles will be the most challenging. The primary contention lies in territorial disputes, especially concerning the eastern Donbas region, which Russia insists Ukraine must concede despite their inability to secure it militarily. Ukraine stands firm in its refusal to yield territory, recognizing the sacrifices of its soldiers in the ongoing conflict.

“It’s all about the eastern part of our country. It’s all about the land. This is the issue that’s not resolved yet,” Zelensky emphasized, marking the bitter reality of the situation.

Military Security Guarantees

Another crucial topic likely to arise during the discussions concerns the United States’ military response should Russia attempt another invasion. These “security guarantees” are deemed essential by Ukraine for its defense and sovereign integrity. While Zelensky suggests an agreement is in place with the US, detailed information remains scarce.

Trust Issues and Future Considerations

The reliability of Trump’s commitments raises significant questions, particularly in light of his previous actions that have undermined NATO and the foundation of national sovereignty, which forms the basis for Western support of Ukraine. The pressing question remains: can Ukraine genuinely rely on Trump in a future crisis?

Trust in Vladimir Putin is likewise in short supply. Zelensky candidly remarked that Putin has no genuine interest in pursuing peace. The Kremlin has indicated that if satisfactory outcomes are not achieved through negotiation, they will resort to military action—though they have already experienced considerable losses without gaining ground.

The Brutal Reality of Conflict

Amidst these diplomatic efforts, Russian military strikes have resulted in power and water outages in parts of Kyiv, compounded by the harsh winter conditions. Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv, has urged residents to evacuate if possible, warning that continued attacks on critical infrastructure are imminent.

As the situation stands, Kyiv’s infrastructure is under severe strain, raising alarms that more difficult times may still lie ahead.

Conclusion

The trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi represent a critical moment for Ukraine, Russia, and the United States as they navigate complex issues in their pursuit of peace. While there is cautious optimism, the reality of the conflict remains harsh, and the path forward will undoubtedly be fraught with challenges.

• Trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi signal a significant diplomatic engagement among Ukraine, Russia, and the US.
• Ukraine’s desire for peace is tempered by the need for assurances from the US.
• Territorial disputes, especially concerning the Donbas region, remain a crucial barrier to progress.
• Trust in both the US and Russian leaders is precarious, complicating the pursuit of lasting peace.