The Impending Expiration of the New START Treaty: What It Means for Global Arms Control

The expiration of the New START treaty between the United States and Russia marks a significant turning point in global arms control, erasing the last existing limits on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals. This event comes amidst rising international tensions and could herald the end of over fifty years of nuclear arms control efforts.

Significance of the New START Treaty

As the New START treaty reaches its expiration, experts warn that we are witnessing a critical juncture in international relations, potentially leading to a breakdown of the rules-based order established post-World War II. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated that, during a visit to Beijing, “This is a new moment, a new reality – we are ready for it.”

Alexandra Bell, president of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, expressed serious concerns about the increasing complexity and danger of nuclear risks: “Nuclear risks have become more complex, more dangerous, and leaders are failing in their obligation to manage those risks. We are just days away from seeing the United States and Russia discard decades of efforts aimed at maintaining nuclear stability.”

Reactions from Key Figures

Dmitry Medvedev, who was pivotal in signing the New START agreement with Barack Obama in 2010, emphasized the urgency of this moment, suggesting the expiration of the treaty should “alarm everyone.” He stated, “When there is an agreement, it indicates trust; without one, trust has been exhausted.” Meanwhile, Obama mentioned that losing the treaty would arbitrarily undo decades of diplomacy and risk inciting another arms race, making the world less secure.

The Course Ahead

As calls for the world’s superpowers to take last-minute action grow louder, advocates for arms control are urging both nations to reconsider. The New START treaty currently restricts each nation to a deployed strategic arsenal of 1,550 warheads and limits the overall delivery systems to 800.

In September, Vladimir Putin floated the idea of extending the agreement for an additional year, which was met with some support from Donald Trump. However, no substantial negotiations followed, creating a sense of stagnation in progress. Ryabkov remarked, “The lack of an answer is also an answer,” reflecting the current diplomatic impasse.

The Broader Implications

Trump’s administration signaled a willingness to move on from the treaty in January, suggesting a potential for a different agreement that also encompasses China, which possesses a much smaller arsenal of approximately 600 warheads. Comparatively, the United States holds around 5,177 warheads, while Russia has approximately 5,459.

Jennifer Kavanagh from the Defense Priorities arms control advocacy group criticized the notion of a “better deal” post-expiration as overly optimistic. “An agreement with Russia may very well be necessary to bring China into the conversation about nuclear arms control. It might be wiser to maintain the current treaty a bit longer before pursuing new terms,” she cautioned.

The Potential for an Arms Race

With the termination of the New START treaty, experts fear swift repercussions for global arms control. Daryl Kimball from the Arms Control Association warned that the end of the treaty may accelerate a new arms race, citing significant investments being made to modernize arsenals by nuclear powers. He articulated concerns over the growing desire among nuclear arms advocates to increase the U.S. force size to counteract China’s developments.

Moreover, the demise of New START could jeopardize the existing 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Kimball highlighted that such a move would not only violate legal obligations under the NPT but could also undermine critical frameworks that govern international relations.

Nuclear Deterrence and Global Security

Historically, nuclear deterrence has been viewed as a stabilizing force in global security. However, signs indicate that this deterrence is waning, particularly following events such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Alex Kolbin, a nuclear weapons analyst, remarked that “nuclear weapons are no longer functioning as a decisive factor in global security.”

Conclusion

The expiration of the New START treaty raises significant concerns about the future of global arms control and nuclear stability. As international tensions continue to escalate, the loss of this critical agreement could lead to a new era of unpredictability in nuclear politics.