Myanmar’s Controversial Elections: A Shallow Return to Democracy?

This week, as Myanmar gears up for its national elections, the situation remains fraught with tension and uncertainty. Five years after the military junta ousted the last democratically elected government, the elections, which the junta claims are a step towards restoring democracy, have been criticized as a staged event designed to maintain military dominance through indirect control.

Election Overview

The first of three voting rounds is scheduled to commence at 6 AM on December 28. The initial phase covers over 100 townships, including the nation’s commercial hub, Yangon. Following this, another 100 townships will participate in a second phase on January 11, while details regarding a potential third round remain undisclosed.

Who is Running?

In total, there are 57 parties vying for votes, but many are linked to or reliant on the military’s influence. Out of these, only six parties contest nationwide, with the majority limited to single states or regions. The Union Solidarity and Development Party, which is military-backed, has the largest candidate pool and is effectively running without real competition in numerous districts.

Notably absent from this election cycle is Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy, which achieved a significant victory in the 2020 elections but was dissolved after failing to align with the junta’s demands. Several ethnic parties also faced dissolution, illustrating the tightening grip of the junta on the political landscape. Election monitors report that more than half the parties from 2020 no longer exist, despite having won over 70% of votes and seats.

Is the Election Free and Fair?

Numerous nations, alongside the United Nations and various human rights organizations, have denounced these elections as a facade aimed at reinforcing military power. The junta, however, asserts that the elections enjoy public backing.

Conducting the elections amid an ongoing civil war, unleashed by the coup that deposed Aung San Suu Kyi, the voting will not extend to areas under rebel control, which encompass significant regions of the country. Furthermore, the junta has instituted harsh laws prohibiting any activity considered disruptive, leading to over 200 arrests for actions ranging from protests to social media expression. Violators face penalties that could include lengthy prison sentences or even capital punishment.

International Perspectives

Myanmar’s northern neighbor, China, has openly supported the military regime and its decision to proceed with the elections, viewing them as crucial for restoring stability. Conversely, many Western nations regard the vote as illegitimate. UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk emphasized that elections occur in an environment of “violence and repression,” urging military authorities to cease violent coercion of voters and to halt arrests of dissenters.

U.S. policy regarding Myanmar remains ambiguous, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicating the administration is still determining its stance. The U.S. has criticized the junta’s actions in the past, though recent adjustments in policy included lifting sanctions on select military affiliates and citing elections as a sign of improvement in governance—claims contested by human rights activists.

Aung San Suu Kyi’s Absence

The absence of Myanmar’s former leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been in military detention since the coup, casts a long shadow over the elections. While her international reputation has suffered due to her handling of the Rohingya crisis, she remains a symbol of hope for many in Myanmar. Her exclusion from the ballot suggests that the elections will neither be free nor fair.

Currently serving a 27-year sentence for various charges, widely viewed as politically motivated, Suu Kyi’s plight has raised concerns among her family and supporters regarding her well-being in custody. Her son, Kim Aris, expressed doubts about the legitimacy of these elections, suggesting that she would see no value in participating.

Conclusion

As Myanmar approaches these pivotal elections, the landscape is marked by significant uncertainty and criticism. While the junta champions the events as a movement toward democracy, both national and international observers see the elections as a mockery of the democratic process, primarily aimed at legitimizing the military’s hold on power.