Understanding Ukraine’s Proposed Peace Plan and Demilitarized Zones
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently expressed readiness to designate parts of the Donbas region, currently under Ukrainian control, as a demilitarized zone (DMZ). This willingness comes on the condition that Russia withdraws its military presence from the area. Zelenskyy’s remarks indicate a significant territorial concession from Ukraine amidst ongoing pressures from Russian military advances and calls from the international community for a ceasefire. In addition to the Donbas, Zelenskyy highlighted a potential second DMZ around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, which is currently under Russian control. These proposals are part of a broader 20-point peace initiative aimed at ending the conflict in Ukraine.
What is the 20-Point Peace Plan?
Zelenskyy introduced his peace plan during a two-hour press briefing, during which he read from a carefully annotated document. The discussions that led to the plan took place between Washington and Kyiv negotiators over the previous weekend. Below are the main points of contention within the negotiations:
NATO Membership
From the outset of the conflict, Russia has firmly opposed Ukraine’s accession to NATO. The Trump administration has echoed this sentiment, asserting that Ukraine must abandon its aspirations to join the alliance. Nonetheless, Zelenskyy has resisted pressure to amend Ukraine’s constitution to enshrine a policy of neutrality. “The decision of NATO members about Ukraine’s membership is theirs to make. We’ve decided against making constitutional amendments that would have barred our NATO aspirations,” he stated.
Territorial Concessions
Zelenskyy noted that any requirement for Ukraine to withdraw its troops would necessitate approval via a national referendum. The Ukrainian constitution prohibits the unilateral alteration of the country’s borders. Nonetheless, some analysts suggest that Ukraine may need to adopt a middle ground, recognizing that it does not have control over certain Russian-occupied territories without formally acknowledging them.
Presidential Elections
According to Zelenskyy, presidential elections in Ukraine will only take place after a peace agreement is formalized. This decision has been influenced by U.S. President Trump’s advocacy for electoral processes, while Russia has leveraged the lack of elections during wartime to question Zelenskyy’s legitimacy.
Demilitarized Zones
Zelenskyy proposed that any territories from which Ukrainian forces withdraw should be designated as DMZs or free trade zones. He mentioned that this approach aims to create a framework that could satisfy both parties involved in the negotiations.
Proposed Demilitarized Zones in Ukraine
Russia has asserted its desire for complete control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which together form the Donbas, historically Ukraine’s industrial heartland. Currently, Russian forces control almost all of Luhansk and approximately 70% of Donetsk. This latest proposal involves Ukrainian troops pulling back from the remaining 30% of Luhansk, provided Russia agrees not to occupy the territory, which would then be designated as a DMZ.
In addition, the proposal extends to the area surrounding the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, suggesting it also become a DMZ. However, critical questions remain regarding the governance of these DMZs, enforcement measures, and how shared resources, especially concerning the nuclear facility, would be managed. Marina Miron, a scholar at King’s College, shared her doubts, stating, “I don’t see how this could function, especially given that Russia is currently achieving military success.” She noted that the establishment of DMZs signals Ukraine’s openness to negotiations, effectively shifting some diplomatic responsibility onto Russia.
Russia’s Response
Thus far, Russia has neither accepted nor outright rejected Zelenskyy’s peace plan. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that the Russian government is still “formulating its position” on the proposals.
Examples of Demilitarized Zones Worldwide
Demilitarized zones exist in several regions around the globe. Some notable examples include:
- Korean Demilitarized Zone: A 4km-wide buffer zone established after the Korean War in 1953, separating North and South Korea.
- Golan Heights UN Zone: Implemented in 1974 after the Israel-Syria war, this DMZ serves to separate Israeli-occupied territory from Syrian-held regions.
- Sinai Peninsula Zones: Established in 1979 as part of the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty, creating defined security areas monitored by an international force.
- Aland Islands: An autonomous, demilitarized region of Finland since 1921, situated between Sweden and Finland.
- Antarctica: Designated a demilitarized zone under the 1959 Antarctic Treaty, foreclosing military activity to ensure peaceful scientific research.
Have DMZs Been Effective?
In some instances, like the Korean DMZ, such zones have successfully prevented large-scale military conflicts. Conversely, other regions, such as the Preah Vihear temple area between Thailand and Cambodia, have experienced renewed violence, highlighting the potential challenges. While DMZs in areas like the Golan Heights and Sinai Peninsula have mitigated direct conflicts, violations still occur, particularly in the Golan Heights, where Israel has repeatedly encroached.