Impact of Rain on India’s Soybean Farmers Amid Trade Tensions

Indore, India: Mahesh Patel, a soybean cultivator in Madhya Pradesh, shared his disappointment over the recent harvest season. At 57 years old, he operates across more than 3 hectares (7.4 acres) of land, but this year’s excessive rainfall has severely disrupted his soybean crops.

Patel lamented, “Our production barely reached 9,000 kg, which is only one-fifth of our expected yield.” This dramatic decline in soybean production coincides with a decline in corn prices, which have plummeted due to an unexpectedly abundant harvest attributed to the same rainfall.

While the farmers in this region grapple with crop challenges, larger concerns loom. Soybeans and corn, vital commodities for both livestock and human consumption, play a significant role in ongoing trade discussions between India and the United States.

Recently, tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump reached 50 percent on goods exported to the US from India, pushing multiple industries to the brink of financial struggle. A contentious point in negotiations involves the US request for greater access to India’s agricultural market, particularly targeting genetically modified (GM) soybean and corn.

This GM technology modifies plant DNA to enhance desirable traits, enabling faster production than traditional methods. The US, the second-largest soybean producer globally, makes up 28 percent of the total production, following Brazil.

Notably, China, once a major buyer of US soybeans, has drastically reduced its purchases in light of trade tensions, prompting a desperate need for alternative markets.

Suman Sahai, founder of Gene Campaign, emphasized the urgency for the US, stating, “To satisfy his political base of soybean and corn farmers, Trump needs to find a new outlet for these crops.”

India’s Hesitation to Adopt GM Technology

Despite pressure from the US, India has hesitated to allow GM soybean and corn imports, primarily to safeguard its organic crop markets, which are gaining traction globally. Currently, India produces 13.05 million tonnes of soybeans, with Madhya Pradesh contributing over half of this total. Moreover, Indian corn production stands at around 42 million tonnes, with 20 percent allocated to creating fuel-grade ethanol. Although India achieves self-sufficiency in corn, it often imports soybean oil due to a lack of processing facilities for edible oils.

Farmers have expressed frustration with traders who pay below the government’s established price, coupled with rising costs for seeds, fertilizers, and unpredictable weather events that adversely affect harvests. As Prakash Patel, a corn farmer, noted, “Traders dictate prices, and we struggle even to cover our production costs.”

These difficulties are compounded by concerns that the introduction of US GM crops could further undermine their livelihoods. Indian farmers generally yield about 1 metric tonne of soybeans per 0.40 hectares (1 acre), while GM varieties can reach 3 metric tonnes over the same area, as stated by Nirbhay Singh, a farmer from Piploda village.

Corn exporter Hemant Jain echoed these concerns about market perceptions, indicating that foreign buyers might hesitate to purchase from India if GM crops were introduced.

Indra Shekhar Singh, an agrarian analyst, remarked on the stark contrast between Indian and US farming landscapes. Indian farmers typically manage around 2 hectares (5 acres), often working family plots while supplementing their income by laboring on others’ fields. In contrast, US farms are vast and supported by substantial government subsidies.

“The US seeks new markets since China has pulled back, but Indian farmers cannot compete with subsidized commodities from the US, potentially leading to deepened poverty.” Singh stated.

The Push for GM Technology

Despite the challenges, there is a growing belief among some scientists and industry observers that GM soybean and corn could ultimately benefit Indian agriculture. An anonymous government scientist noted that GM technology could help manage weeds without harming crops, significantly reducing pest control costs. Increased crop yields with GM practices would also help mitigate farmers’ losses.

Kawaljeet Bhatia, a poultry feed supplier, argued that adopting GM crops could lead to remarkable increases in output, benefiting both farmers and related businesses. He suggested that the government focus on developing domestic GM seeds rather than relying on imports.

“While a few exporters profit from maintaining an organic label, it is inevitable that we will need to transition to GM for productivity improvement,” Bhatia stated.

The Indian government remains cautious about this shift, primarily because agriculture contributes 18 percent to the GDP and supports nearly half the population. Political analysts note that the government learns from past farmer protests, remaining attentive to potential repercussions in its decision-making.

“India-US relations are already strained due to tariffs affecting numerous businesses reliant on the US market. The government is mindful of its voter base before making any significant moves,” concluded political commentator Sibaji Pratim Basu.